Hot Stove Report: Early Winners and Losers

12/06/2007

As the Winter Meetings in Nashville come to a close, the early winners and losers of this baseball offseason are beginning to emerge. Obviously, there could still be a ton of action left this offseason, but as of now there seem to be some clear winners and losers already.

Early Offseason Winners:
1. Detroit Tigers – Getting Miguel Cabrera didn’t come cheap, but the Tigers now have one of the 5 best hitters in baseball in the middle of their order, making their lineup arguably the best in all of baseball. Even if Dontrelle Willis might not be the same pitcher he was from 2003-2005, he should still easily be one of the better #4 starters in baseball. And don’t forget the Tigers also picked up Edgar Renteria, who should have a better go around in his second stint in the American League now that he won’t have the pressure of playing in Boston or batting at the top of the order. Now, the next issue for the Tigers is when to start negotiating that $200m+ contract extension with Miguel Cabrera.
2. Washington Nationals - The Nationals were the beneficiaries of yet another seemingly disastrous Mets trade. While not nearly as bad as the Scott Kazmir/Victor Zambrano trade, I really don’t think it will be long before the Mets come to regret giving up on Lastings Milledge too early. He’s a 25/25 type athlete with a ferocious swing that reminds most scouts of an early, pre-PED Gary Sheffield. The Nationals also got another high-ceiling talent (with real off-the-field-issues) in Elijah Dukes. Obviously there’s a lot of risk there, but the cost of Dukes was low, and for a talent of Dukes caliber, taking the risk seems like a great idea for a team as short on talent as the Nationals are.
3. Florida Marlins - Now it seems strange to say the Tigers are the biggest winners, and then list the Marlins here at #3. The reason for this is that the Marlins hauled in an two very high ceiling talents in Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller. For 2008, I’d rather have Andrew Miller than Dontrelle Willis, and the Marlins will now have Miller cost controlled for the next 5 years (or less if they win another World Series and sell him off). Maybin is an amazing talent, an easy A+, top 5 prospect, and more importantly fits a need for the Marlins in CF. While losing Miguel Cabrera will leave a gaping hole in the middle of the lineup, the Marlins were not going to win in 2008 or 2009 before his contract was up, so trading him for impact players who they will have through 2012 and 2013 was a great move.

Early Offseason Losers:
1. New York Mets - So when we last checked in with the Mets, they essentially had one solid starting pitcher (John Maine), and a lot of question marks (Pedro, Oliver Perez, Mike Pelfrey, El Duque). Now they lost an over-the-hill Tom Glavine, and replaced him with… well… NOTHING. They traded away their 2nd best prospect for a RF who will likely need a platoon, and a catcher who hasn’t had an OPS over .750 since he was a member of the Expos. This leaves the Mets in a precarious situation, where they would need to basically gut their farm system in order to get even Dan Haren or Erik Bedard.
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, etc. - Much like the Mets, the Angels haven’t done anything to fill their biggest need. In fact, they pretty much did the opposite. They committed long years to another CF who is best known for robbing HRs, and thereby essentially killing any hope for playing time for Reggie Willits (the spark for the Angels last year). They also traded away Orlando Cabrera, the heart and soul of the team, for a stable innings eater, 4th starter type. They still don’t have a bat that can protect an aging Vlad, and once again they overpayed for a CF who is coming off a career year.

Undecideds:
Boston Red Sox - The Red Sox did some great things in getting Curt Schilling at below market value, and re-signing Mike Lowell without having to include a 4th year. But their offseason is unfinished, and they are in the very luxurious position of having pieces to deal, but not feeling forced to make a trade they might regret in the near future.
New York Yankees - The Yankees do what they do best, overpay for veterans for too many years. Signing Mariano at above market value into his forties doesn’t seem to be a great idea, nor does committing a lot of money to a catcher entering his late 30s, but the Andy Pettite re-sign was a great deal for the Yankees. And of course there’s A-Rod, who I can guarantee won’t be worth $30+ million when he’s in his forties, but anytime you can re-sign the best player in baseball, it’s never a bad offseason, right?
Tampa Bay Rays- The good news for Rays fan(s), is that the organization seems to finally not be overvaluing their prospects, and finally traded away one of their surplus outfielders for pitching. The problem was they probably should’ve gotten more for Delmon Young and Elijah Dukes. Still, a step in the right direction for the organization.
Minnesota Twins - Regardless of what they decide with Johan, the Twins get arguably the best offseason acquisition, in a healthy Francisco Liriano. I also liked getting Delmon Young, though he’s not likely to help the OBP woes of the Twins.
Cleveland Indians - They’ve stood pat for the most part, but I did love the deal for Masahide Kobayashi.

Don’t see your favorite team on this list? Think I got one wrong? Feel free to comment on it.

The Voice of Todd is a weekly baseball column on a wide variety of baseball topics. If you have any comments or suggestions for the column, please send an email to: toddching-[at]-gmail-[dot]-com.

-TC